Zhonggong Education (002607) Commentary Report： Public Examination Training Contradicts Growth, Long-term Opportunity for the Construction of the Company’s Vocational Education Ecological Platform
Zhonggong Education (002607) Commentary Report: Public Examination Training Contradicts Growth, Long-term Opportunity for the Construction of the Company’s Vocational Education Ecological Platform
Event: The company released the semi-annual report for 2019, and the revenue of H1 in 2019 was 36.
37 ppm, an increase of 48 in ten years.
79%, net profit attributable to mothers4.
930,000 yuan, an increase of 132 in ten years.
Core point of view: Public examination training has grown by 26% against the trend, high growth of diverse categories, and the proportion of teachers, comprehensive and online business revenue has increased by 10pct.
The report summarizes that the company’s revenue and net profit attributable to mothers maintained high growth, of which the growth rate of civil servants / public institutions / teachers / comprehensive / online training revenues were 26% / 7% / 52% / 89% / 206%, (In terms of revenue, we focus on three dimensions: ①In the context of civil service contraction, the company merged brand advantages to seize market share and launched more market-oriented curriculum products. The number of civil servant training and average customer unit price increased by 10% / 15% respectively;② Benefiting from the company’s vigorous layout and rapid growth of comprehensive categories centered on postgraduate entrance examination and IT training, we expect to gradually maintain a growth rate of about 100%; ③ The company vigorously develops online education and launches more high-end online + combined courses to achieveOnline training categories both increased in volume and price).
Benefiting from the company’s scale effect, the gross profit margin was extended and increased2.
2 points to 57.
52%; sales expenses and management expenses remain reasonably increased. At the same time, the company continues to strengthen R & D expansion. R & D expenses increased by 49%. Financial expenses increased by 3843 million due to the increase in collection fees and short-term debt. At the same time, 5397 million financial management was confirmed.Investment income.
The campus has maintained rapid expansion, with teaching and research as the focus of investment, and digital transformation + layout of learning bases to improve efficiency.
The number of reports, the company’s direct branches increased by 179 to 880 (杭州桑拿网+ 25%) compared with the end of 18 years, the number of employees / R & D personnel / teachers increased 20% / 44% / 23% compared to the end of 18 years, the proportion of R & D personnel in the number of teachersFrom the end of 18 to 14.
3% increased to 16 in 19H1.
Training sessions 178.
90,000, up from 44 previously.
35%, including face-to-face training and online training for 930,000 / 860,000 people, respectively, an increase of 31% / 63%.
The company actively promotes the application level of dual teachers, initiates the integrated and coordinated re-engineering of the entire business system, and realizes the dynamic monitoring of online operations; the company has deployed a one-stop learning base and improved it.
We believe that the study base is suitable for the postgraduate entrance examination, IT, and other courses that need to extend the study cycle. It is conducive to improving the learning efficiency of students, improving the efficiency of company management and operation, and improving the profitability of the company. At the same time, through online monitoring and management of the dual-teacher classroom, high-quality teaching can be provided by famous teachers.The content was expanded to multiple scattered teaching sites across the country, and online management operations were integrated to improve teaching efficiency and quality.
Earnings Forecast and Estimate: We maintain the company’s net profit attributable to its mother to 19-20 years.
50,000 yuan, the corresponding EPS is 0.
53 yuan / share, corresponding to PE is 54/38/28 times.
We are optimistic about the company ① Based on the public test training track, settling down high-quality successful genes such as deep cultivation and excellent service capabilities, reshape the track ceiling and boundaries, and improve the industry service model and ability level. ② Vocational education centered around the concentric circle of college student usersExpansion of Kao Pei category, ③ slender-to-skill training and the layout of education and vocational education industry, develop the nation’s leading vocational education ecological platform, and maintain a highly recommended level.
Risk reminder: policy risks, registrations increase significantly
Changdian Technology (600584) semi-annual report comment： 19Q2 improvement over the previous quarter increased investment in 5G product line
Changdian Technology (600584) semi-annual report comment: 19Q2 improvement over the previous quarter increased investment in 5G product line
Event: The company released its 2019 Interim Report and achieved 91 in the first half of the year.4.8 billion, down 19 each year.06%, achieving a net profit of -2.5.8 billion, net profit after deduction is -4.2.3 billion, previously changed expectations. Investment Highlights: Global semiconductor market size, 19Q2 company revenue declines, improvement and improvement According to a report by the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics Association, the global semiconductor market sales revenue in the first half of 2019 was $ 195 billion, compared with a decrease of 14%.8%, the global semiconductor market has entered a downward channel.Affected by this, the company’s revenue in the first half of the year fell by 19%.06%.The company’s 19Q2 revenue was 46.3.4 billion, although it is down by 20 every year.28%, but up by 2 from the previous month.64%, since 18Q4 the company’s revenue substitution situation has eased. Among its subsidiaries, Zhongchang Power has the most advanced 厦门夜网 performance, with revenue of 12.1.5 billion, an annual increase of 6.3%. The company’s gross profit margin increased in 19Q2, and financial costs decreased. The increase in research and development costs was affected by capacity conversion. The company’s gross profit margin in 19H1 was 9.3%, accumulative 3 PCT in a year; but 19Q2 gross profit margin is 10.47%, an increase of 2 from the previous month.37 PCTs, indicating that the company’s operating conditions have begun to improve in 19Q2.At the same time, the company reduced financial costs and increased investment in research and development; 19H1 financial costs fell by 8 each year.45%, R & D expenses increase by 35.twenty three%. The company’s advanced production capacity leads the industry, increasing investment and expanding output value. The company’s market share is the third largest in the world. It has developed in parallel with advanced international counterparts in high-end packaging technology and is at the leading level in China.The company actively lays out business opportunities in the 5G era, concentrates advantageous resources on R & D and trial production of 5G products, and increases investment to expand production. Profit forecast We adjusted the profit forecast based on the latest financial report. It is estimated that the company’s revenue in the next three years will be USD 24.5, 26.9 billion and 30.1 billion. As the company is still in the integration stage, the profit cannot reflect the true value of the company.Companies in the packaging and testing industry average 1.5 times the PS level is estimated to give the company a 19-year target price of 22.9 yuan, maintaining the “recommended” level. Risk Warning: The integration is not up to expectations, the semiconductor cycle is down, and Sino-US trade frictions.
Sunlord Electronics (002138) Company Evaluation： 3Q19 Performance Exceeds Expected Mid- and Long-Term Growth Logic Confirmed
Sunlord Electronics (002138) Company Evaluation: 3Q19 Performance 武汉夜网论坛 Exceeds Expected Mid- and Long-Term Growth Logic Confirmed
Event: Sunlord Electronics released the third quarter report of 2019, and the company achieved revenue of 19.31 ppm, 10 per year.38%, net profit attributable to mothers2.97 ppm, a ten-year average of 17.87%, deducting non-net profit 2.75 ‰, at least -14.34%, lower than expected. Single quarter revenue in the third quarter of 19 7.1.4 billion each year 15.14%, achieving net profit attributable to mother 1.02 ppm, with a ten-year average of 24.7%, net profit after deduction is 9.32 ppm, -28 per year.18%.In the third quarter, the single-quarter revenue exceeded 700 million for the first time, creating a record high since the company was founded, mainly due to the continuous growth of customers in the internal communications business, and new products such as automotive electronics and military industry have been gradually increasing.In the third quarter of 19, the fixed asset turnover rate was therefore increased from the previous quarter and from the previous year, which was 27% in a single quarter and increased by 1 from the previous quarter.4 averages, rising by 0 each year.8. Product price cuts affect gross profit margins, and labor wages increase management expense ratios.Single-quarter gross margin of 33 in the third quarter of 19.5%, down 4 each year.6 levels, level 2 from the previous quarter.2 units.Under the situation of maximizing production capacity (increasing the turnover rate of fixed assets), the decline in gross profit margin was mainly due to the decline in product prices.The industry as a whole was at a high point last year, and the price of internal customers in the industry was generally adjusted about once every six months. The price adjustment in the third quarter brought a quarter-on-quarter change in gross profit margin.The quarterly management expense ratio increased by 1 from the previous quarter.4pcts, R & D expense increased by 0.6pcts, mainly due to the increase in wages of R & D personnel and increase in R & D expenses. Construction in progress remains stable, and capital expenditures increase every year.Construction in progress in the third quarter 2.44 trillion, basically stable.Capital expenditures in the third quarter of 19 (cash paid for the purchase and construction of fixed assets, intangible assets and other long-term assets) 1.68 ppm per year last year.30,000 yuan increased by 63.9%, 2Q2 from 2Q19.At 16 trillion, the restructuring dropped. High industry barriers, accelerated import substitution, long-term benefits of 5G advancement, and maintain a “buy” rating.The inductor industry has high process and customer certification barriers. As a leading domestic and global inductor company, Sunlord Electronics has a significant competitive advantage within the industry.The demand and price of 5G drive inductors are rising, the company’s market share brought about by the domestic alternative speedup, and the mass production of automotive electronics for many years are the main logic for Sunlord to achieve rapid growth in the next 2-3 years.We expect the company’s operating income to be 26 in 2019-2021.86, 34.72 and 46.1.3 billion, with a net profit of 4.49, 6.16 and 7.8 billion, corresponding to PE of 37.54x, 27.35x and 21.61x, maintain “Buy” rating. Risk reminder events: 5G gradually exceeds expectations; the progress of domestically produced inductors is gradually expected; the risk of weak demand.
Chinese boulder (600176): the 成都桑拿网 beginning of a new cycle
The three major turning points of the fiberglass industry are approaching, and the industry will enter a new cycle.
1) Inflection point of the production cycle: According to our statistics, in 2019, domestic glass fiber supplementary production capacity will gradually drop to 20-30 replacement (2018: 100 replacement), overseas glass fiber production capacity expansion will also replace (2019: 20 replacement),The new production capacity in 2018 has been basically digested in the first quarter of 2019; 2) The turning point of price and profit: At present, many small companies are already on the edge of the breakeven, and the bottom of the price is supported, so the economy and demand are picking up.The coming point; 3) The key point of differentiated development: By 2014, we believe that the development of new infrastructure such as wind power installation and 5G base stations in 2019 will further boost demand for high-end products and accelerate the trend of differentiated development of the industry. Some companiesExpect to benefit from it; pioneer of differentiated development, Nirvana of the King’s glory.
The company is a pioneer in the differentiated development of the leading fiberglass fiber industry. It has multiple advantages such as technology, scale and resource endowment. According to our calculations, the company’s wind power yarns, thermoplastic yarns and other high-end products account for 40%, which is in the industry.Absolutely leading position.
With the gradual climb of the company’s intelligent manufacturing base for alkali-free yarns and electronic yarns, we believe that the company will further improve its thorough differentiated development strategy, and expand its advantages in scale and cost, thereby leading the recovery of the glass fiber industry and the new cycle.Development, the first quarter of 2019 will be the bottom of the company’s performance; the progress of internationalization is steadily advancing, and it is predicted that the center will promote improvement.
The company’s US 8 production line is expected to start in 2019, and India 10 is expected to start production in 2020, which will cause the company’s overseas throughput to reach 38, accounting for 18% of the company’s total production capacity, and therefore the company better radiates the Asian and North American markets.Improve the international layout.
For the benchmark Fuyao Glass, we believe that under the background of the steady progress of the company’s internationalization process and the further implementation of the differentiated development strategy, the estimated central trend is rising, which is now a double turning point of the company’s performance and estimates, and a good layout opportunity;: Conservatively expected net profit attributable to mothers in 2019/202027.
90,000 yuan, an increase of 14 in ten years.
9% / 20.
The company’s 2019E net profit is estimated at 17x PE with a target price of 15.
96 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating.
Risks indicate that demand exceeds expectations; increased capacity exceeds expectations; prices of raw materials and fuel continue to exceed expectations;
China Shenhua (601088): China Shenhua Series In-depth Report (1)-Electricity
Investment Highlights Beijing Guodian has a 16% potential power generation increase: China Shenhua and Guodian Power each injected power assets to form a joint venture, Beijing Guodian.
Beijing Guodian’s installed capacity is 67.37 million kilowatts, and another 9.54 million kilowatts of units under construction are expected to be gradually connected to the grid at the end of 2019, which can gradually increase the scale by 14%.
2020 is expected to increase power generation by about 16% compared to 2017.
China Shenhua accounts for 42 Beijing Guodian.
53% shares, enjoy investment income.
To ease regional homogeneous competition, the proportion of advanced units was 67.
9%: Jointly listed companies inject plants with high regional coincidence into Beijing Guodian, which can ease regional homogeneous competition.
Beijing Guodian’s assets are concentrated in power-deficient provinces such as Jiangsu and Zhejiang, as well as on the “west-to-east power transmission” trunk line, with advanced units accounting for 67.
9%, higher than the original Guodian Power.
This reorganization has increased the market share and concentration of the corresponding regions and further enhanced the market competitive advantage.
Shenhua helps power plants reduce fuel costs and increases their installed capacity. Coal exposure: Guodian Power injected into Beijing Guodian’s power plants the original purchase of Shenhua coal only accounted for 3%.
These plants are mostly distributed near the Shenhua production area or in the transportation area. In the future, China Shenhua’s “production, transportation and sales” integration advantage can be used to increase the proportion of Shenhua coal purchase. If coal is purchased at a long-term price, fuel costs can be effectively reduced.
At the same time, Beijing Guodian can add China Shenhua 7100 initial / annual coal consumption.
China Shenhua reserves high-quality thermal power resources: China Shenhua still has 2,858.
The scale of 40,000 kilowatts of thermal power installed capacity, of which half of the units to supply standard coal consumption is lower than the scale of China Shenhua, and the number of hours of use of units distributed in high power price provinces exceeds the smallest of Shenhua.
The operating targets for 2019 have fully considered the divestiture of power assets, and the gross profit margin of the power generation segment is expected to maintain growth.
Taking into account the impact of the divestiture of power assets, China Shenhua lowered its operating targets for 2019, in which the planned sales of electricity dropped by 46.
5%, the decline is matched with the installed capacity of the stripped.
China Shenhua’s uninvested power plants can still maintain efficient and stable operation. Based on this, we expect the gross profit margin of the power generation segment to increase by 4%.
Investment strategy: It is estimated that Beijing Guodian’s net profit attributable to mothers in 2019-2020 will be 54.
7.2杭州夜网论坛 billion, 63.
810,000 yuan, 29 attributable to China Shenhua.
28 ppm, 35.
79 trillion, respectively contributed to China Shenhua 6.
87% net profit.
Based on the core assumptions of -1%, -2%, and -1% changes in coal prices over the next three years, we have adjusted our profit forecasts. It is estimated that China Shenhua’s attributable net profit for 2019-2021 will be 449.
1.7 billion, 454.
8.5 billion, 463.
21 trillion, EPS is 2 respectively.
26 yuan, 2.
29 yuan, 2.
33 yuan, corresponding to the closing price of PE on March 26, 2019 is 9.
0X, maintaining the level of “prudent overweight”.
Risk reminder: macroeconomic fluctuations, electricity price adjustments, industrial policy risks, environmental protection supervision, project replacement completed as scheduled, asset ownership risks, bond debt transfer risks; 重庆耍耍网 considering the same caliber of financial data, the three major statements in the schedule are not based on partsAdjustments to the divestiture of power assets may cause some predicted values to differ from actual published values.
Yifeng Pharmacy (603939) 2018 Annual Report and 2019 Quarterly Report Commentary-Self-built + M & A two-wheel drive company continued high growth
Yifeng Pharmacy (603939) 2018 Annual Report and 2019 Quarterly Report Commentary-“Self-built + M & A” two-wheel drive company continued high growth
Incident Description The company released its annual report for 18 years and a quarterly report for 19 years. The company achieved revenue of 69 in 18 years.1.3 billion, an increase of 43 in ten years.79%, net profit attributable to mother 4.1.6 billion, an increase of 32 in ten years.83%, net profit after deducting non-return to mother 3.8.2 billion, an annual increase of 23.53%.The company’s revenue in the first quarter 杭州夜生活网 of 19 was 24.6.9 billion, an increase of 66 in ten years.67%, net profit attributable to mother 1.4.7 billion, an increase of 45 in ten years.77%. Incident review The addition of new stores to suppress the company’s profitability in the short term will become a new growth point in the future.The company achieved operating income in the fourth quarter of 2018.4.7 billion, an increase of 61 in ten years.89%, net profit attributable to mother 1.0.8 billion, an increase of 16 in ten years.13%, the company’s net profit growth has improved in the fourth quarter.During the reporting period, the company achieved a gross profit margin of 39.73%, down by 0 every year.31pct, net interest rate 6.39%, down by 0 every year.21pct, with a sales expense ratio of 27.43%, rising by 0 every year.51pct, management expense ratio 3.87%, a decrease 重庆耍耍网 of 0 every year.34pct, financial expense ratio is 0.19%, rising by 0 every year.27 points.The decline in the company’s profit margin and the increase in the sales expense ratio are mainly due to the company’s replenishment of a large number of stores that are still in the consolidation period, which will cause some pressure on the company’s profitability in the short term. In the future, the store integration will be completed, and these new stores will gradually release performance.In 2018, the company added 1,552 stores, including 546 directly-operated stores, 89 franchise stores, acquired 959 stores, and closed 42 stores. Acquired Xinxing Pharmacy and entered Hebei, self-built + M & A two-wheel drive.The company implements a regional focus development strategy. The company’s stores were previously concentrated in seven provinces and cities in Hunan, Hubei, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Jiangxi, Zhejiang, and Guangdong. The company transferred the company to acquire the new pharmacy in Shijiazhuang, and the company’s territory expanded to northern China.Shijiazhuang Xinxing Pharmacy is the second largest chain pharmacy enterprise in the Hebei region. The company holds 91% of the equity and consolidated in September 18, and Xinxing Pharmacy achieved revenue of 10 in 18 years.5.3 billion, an increase of 16 in ten years.35%, net profit 6277.550,000 yuan, an increase of 38 in ten years.97%, 19 years will significantly increase the company’s performance.In 2019, the company plans to add 1,000 stores through “self-built + acquisition”.From January to March 2019, the company’s net increase of 347 stores, including 131 newly opened stores, acquired 204 stores, 43 franchised stores, closed 31 stores, as of March 31, 2019, the company has 3,958 stores Family. The investment proposal estimates that the company’s EPS for the years 19-21 will be 1.50\2.01\2.58, corresponding to the company’s closing price of 58 on April 10.98 yuan, PE for 19-21 is 39.32\29.34\22.86. Maintain the “overweight” rating. Risks indicate that the outflow of prescriptions exceeds expectations; the profitability of new stores is lower than expected.
Goldwind Technology (002202) Comment Report： Performance Meets Expectations, Rushing Tide Boosts Company Recovery
Goldwind Technology (002202) Comment Report: Performance Meets Expectations, Rushing Tide Boosts Company Recovery
Event: The company announced the 2018 performance report, and realized operating income of 287 in real terms.31 ppm, an increase of 14 in ten years.33%, net profit attributable to mother 32.1.7 billion, a five-year growth of 5.30%, net profit after deduction is 28.71 ppm, an increase of 0 in ten years.03%.Of which 2018Q4 operating income was 109.1.5 billion, an increase of 34 in ten years.38%, an increase of 60 from the previous month.85%, net profit attributable to mother 7.98 ppm, a five-year increase of 5.15%, down 10 from the previous month.29%, net profit after deducting non-return to mother 5.70 ppm, a decrease of 21 per year.45%, down 34.92%. Opinion: The increase in wind turbine sales and wind farm power generation will drive revenue growth. Benefiting from the increase in the company’s sales capacity of wind turbines, the increase of wind capacity in the operation phase, the improvement of wind power cut-off indicators, the increase in power generation compared with the same period last year, and the company’s operating income increased by 14%.33%.According to BNEF statistics, the amount of Goldwind fans added in 20186.7GW, an annual increase of 26.4%, the domestic city share reached 32%, an increase of 3 percentage points, and continued to maintain the domestic city share.In 2018, the national wind energy price utilization hours were 2,095 hours, an increase of 147 hours per year.As of the third quarter of 2018, the company’s wind farm equity capacity4.20GW, wind power utilization hours of 1654 hours, an increase of 237 hours per year, 89 hours higher than the national average over the same period, the amount of power generation5.8南京桑拿网1TWh, an annual increase of 39.7%. The performance is basically in line with expectations, and the wind power industry recovery signal is obvious. From the second half of 2017 to the first half of 2018, the price of onshore wind turbines continued to be subdivided, as the onshore wind turbine delivery period was about 1-1.In 5 years, the impact of lower prices in the second half of 2017 on the suppression of net profit gradually reflected in Q3-Q4 of 2018, which turned into a stable and rebounding price for fan tenders in the second half of 2018. The prices of major raw materials fell, and the company’s profit marginsExpected in 2019Q3.The wind abandonment rate has dropped, and wind power consumption tasks have been initially achieved; conventional power groups have been reorganized, and wind power investment will be back 武汉夜网论坛 on track; parity policies have been implemented, and offshore wind power has been promoted in an orderly manner; the wind power industry recovery signal has become clearer, and the probability of wind power installed capacity in 2019 continuesincrease.As a leader in wind turbines, Goldwind will continue to benefit from this round of wind power recovery cycles. Earnings forecast and estimation: Taking into account the consensus expectation of domestic wind power supplementary installation growth in 2019, we adjust the company’s EPS in 19-20 to be 1.02, 1.2.3 billion, corresponding to 13 times and 11 times the current P / E.We use the segment assessment method to increase the company’s target price to 16 with the company’s wind turbine business 20 times P / E, power generation business 10 times P / E, wind power services and wind turbine components 15 times P / E.67 yuan, continue to maintain its “strongly recommended” investment rating. Risk warning: the company’s wind farms’ hours of power generation decline; the price of wind turbines has fallen again; wind power policies have changed less than expected.
Pengding Holdings (002938): New machine stocks start off-season
Event: The company’s consolidated operating income 31 in November 2019.6 billion, the previous decade 5.5%, compared with 14 formaldehyde.2%, the company’s revenue from January to November was 241.800 million, an annual increase of 1%. November revenue exceeded the minimum of 5.5%, short-term fluctuations do not change the long-term trend.iPhone11 sales exceeded expectations due to low pricing.Apple ‘s order increase effect was concentrated in October and increased the increase in exchange. In November, revenue fell slightly, the company ‘s production line was more reliable, and the material number allocation steadily increased. The company ‘s current orders are full, and its production capacity in the fourth quarterThe maximum was over the same period of last year. Considering that the high base last year continued into November, and the revenue began to decrease in December, the fourth quarter of this year is expected to resume growth. Apple’s terminal structure improved, and consumer electronics accelerated its growth.Airpods has become Apple ‘s new explosive product. As a leader in TWS, it has continued to grow strongly. The latest release of Airpods Pro has a better response, and there is still room for TWS headset penetration to increase.In addition, the growth of Apple Watch is good. LCP antennas and SLP motherboards have helped increase ASP. The company’s supply of soft boards and motherboards has continued to increase, and its gross profit structure has improved significantly. The release of SE2 is gradual, and new machine stocking has been started.Apple is expected to launch the SE2 mobile phone in the first half of next year. According to industry chain experience and feedback, the advancement of supplier stocking will start in December. It is expected that the company will enter the new product stocking period from December to 2020, gradually turning to the same off-season.Affected by the changes in pricing strategy, we expect SE2 to meet pessimistic expectations in the market, the iPhone ecosystem is complete, and innovation is still in progress. In 2020, 5G mobile phones will be launched and comprehensive expansion is expected to resume growth. The 5G terminal cycle starts, and the company is about to usher in both volume and price.Apple will officially launch a 5G mobile phone next year. The mobile phone innovation cycle has begun, and the single-machine ASP has accelerated, including more FPC and SLP applications. The company is expected to start a new growth cycle from 2020.Wearable devices in the 5G era are expected to accelerate growth, driving demand for soft boards and SLP.With the gradual withdrawal of Japanese manufacturers in the field of flexible boards, the company’s flexible board expansion is expected to further improve. With the transformation of the company’s automated production line, the company’s profitability is expected to strengthen quarter by quarter. Earnings forecasts 西安耍耍网 and investment advice.In 2020, 5G mobile phones and consumer electronics will resonate, and the company’s products will usher in volume and price.We estimate that the company’s net profit attributable to its parent in 2019-2021 will be 30.900 million, 40.100 million, 59.800 million, corresponding estimates are 39x, 30x, 20x, maintaining the “buy” level. Risk reminders: the risk of fluctuations in Apple’s mobile phone sales; the risk of rising raw material prices; the risk of high customer concentration; the risk of new technology progressing less than expected.
Social security funds have increased their positions in three consecutive quarters, including pharmaceuticals and electronics in four industries
Social security funds have increased their positions in three consecutive quarters, including pharmaceuticals and electronics in four industries
Source: Securities Daily’s social security fund investment has been quite stable, relatively accurate judgment of the general trend, and its performance over the years has been relatively dazzling. Therefore, the position of social security funds has always attracted market attention. Its continuous heavy positions reflect a certain value orientation and are also personal investments.An important reference for stock selection. ”Securities Daily” reporter based on flush (111.77 +2.16%, diagnostic stocks) statistics found that as of the end of the third quarter of last year, 293 stocks were held by the social security fund for four consecutive quarters. If the social security fund did not reduce its holdings of the above 293 stocks, it will close until January 8, 2020.The social security fund held a stock market value of 1785.30ppm, an increase of 168 over the end of the third quarter of last year.2.2 billion yuan, an increase of 10.40%. Further statistics found that as of the close of January 8, 2020, 46 social security funds held more than 100 million yuan worth of stocks, of which Agricultural Bank of China (3.68 -0.27%, diagnosis shares) social security funds holding the largest increase in stock market value, reaching 22.5.3 billion yuan, Changchun High-tech (488.40 +0.(01%, diagnosis 北京夜网 shares) followed closely, and the social security fund’s stock market value increased by 9 during the period.1.3 billion, Sany Heavy Industry (17.08 +1.12%, diagnosis shares), Lepu Medical (35.06 +4.50%, diagnosis shares), Beijing New Building Materials (27.15 +3.27%, diagnosis shares), Hualu Hengsheng (20.68 -0.39%, consultation shares) and other 4 stocks during the period of social security funds holding stock market value of more than 500 million yuan, respectively: 7.3.5 billion, 6.8.6 billion, 6.3.6 billion and 5.8.2 billion. In addition, including Conch Cement (53.14 +0.85% of consultations) (4.1.9 billion), Mei Nian Health (14.93 +0.88%, diagnosis of shares) (4.1.7 billion), Wanhua Chemical (55.36 +2.05%, diagnosis of shares) (3.7.7 billion), Top Group (22.20 +2.12%, diagnosis shares) (3.3.8 billion) and Sun Paper (10.09 +1.82%, diagnosis of shares) (3.04 trillion) and other internal 40 stocks during the period, the social security fund’s stock market value growth also exceeded 100 million, so that the social security fund has earned enough pockets. Table 1: It is worth mentioning that the social security fund has a floating profit of more than 100 million since the fourth quarter of last year. It is worth mentioning that good annual report performance is expected to become an important driving force for the continuous holding of social security funds.Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai Open Source Fund, performed in an interview with Securities Daily reporters. The ability to analyze risks, manage risks, and seek returns from risks is the core competitiveness of investment institutions. The mining of high-performance stocks by social security funds is its coreThe expression of competitiveness.The social security fund has always been known for its stability. The stocks that it continuously increases should attract the attention of investors. Such stocks often have better performance expectations, so it is possible to expect, especially those stocks that have been increasing for several consecutive quarters are likely to own the market.The positives have not been fully recognized, and the market outlook is worth looking forward to. Further combing the 2019 annual report performance forecast of the above 293 companies found that most of the companies had excellent performance and maintained rapid growth.Among the 38 companies that have disclosed the 2019 annual report performance forecast, 22 companies have forecasted performance, accounting for nearly 60%.Yantang Dairy (22.66 +2.72% of consultations) (270.00%), Changyuan Power (4.89 +1.03%, diagnosis shares) (194.22%) and Wanma shares (9.25 +0.00%, diagnosis shares) (100.00%) and other 3 companies are expected to double their net profit in 2019, Wingtech (93.59 +3.21%, diagnosis shares), Huiding Technology (215.10 +2.83%, diagnosis shares), triangle tires (15.51 +0.98%, diagnosis shares), Intel Group (12.48 +2.72%, diagnosis shares), Xinguodu (20.85 -1.88%, diagnosis shares), Li Anlong (38.39 +0.71%, diagnosis shares), CV shares (85.10 +0.89%, diagnosis shares), grand blasting (20.83 -0.48%, diagnosis shares), Binjiang Group (4.73 +1.28%, diagnosis shares), China Resources Sanjiu (31.75 +2.62%, diagnosis shares), China Science and Technology (49.95 +2.44%, diagnostic shares) and other companies are expected to gradually increase their net profit in 2019 by more than 50%. More importantly, out of the above-mentioned social security fund holding positions for the fourth consecutive quarter, 34 stocks have been increased by the social security fund for the third consecutive quarter.Among them, Sany Heavy Industry, Hytera (8.95 +2.87%, diagnosis shares), Bank of Nanjing (8.76 +0.81%, diagnosis shares), Tonghua Dongbao (13.02 +2.52%, diagnosis shares), Baiyun Airport (17.18 +0.53%, diagnosis shares), Binjiang Group, CICC Gold (8.90 -6.51%, diagnosis shares), superstar technology (11.22 +1.81%, diagnosis shares), Shuanghui Development (31.41 +3.87%, diagnosis shares), Haida Group (37.48 +0.05%, diagnosis shares), Shanghai Pharmaceuticals (18.59 +1.At the end of the third quarter of 2019, the number of shares held by the Social Security Fund was over 40 million.Through statistical analysis, it was found that Nanjing Bank, CICC Gold, Tonghua Dongbao, and Sinopharm (29.93 +0.20%, diagnosis shares), Wanneng Power (4.67 +1.52%, diagnosis shares), Sany Heavy Industry and other 6 stocks have been increased by more than 5 million shares for three consecutive quarters. Table 2: For the three consecutive quarters in which the social security fund has increased its shareholding industry characteristics, the above-mentioned 34 social security funds have increased their holdings in the three consecutive quarters, mainly in the four industries of medicine and biology, electronics, food and beverage, and chemical industry, and the number of stocks involved is respectivelyThere are 7, 5, 4, and 3. Table 3: Industry distribution of the social security fund’s increased holdings of unit stocks for three consecutive quarters Regarding the market investment logic of the pharmaceutical biosector, Wei Yan, chief analyst of the Shanghai securities and pharmaceutical industry, said that with the deepening of structural reforms on the supply side and payment side of the pharmaceutical sectorIn the long run, the procurement of drugs and consumables will continue to drive the replacement of medical insurance funds. In the process, leading companies in generic drugs and medical consumables that have scale cost effects and technical advantages can quickly concentrate in the market.Survive in the process, and even hope to gain more shares. The reorganization policy will be transformed into practicable R & D capabilities for companies to achieve innovative transformation, promote the development of domestic innovative pharmaceutical machinery industry chains, and the performance of pharmaceutical listed companies may continue to differentiate. The recommended layout is high.Prosperous market leaders and industry leaders include innovative pharmaceutical companies with rich product lines, expanded R & D capabilities, and high-quality disease racetracks.
Hongcheng Water (600461)： The completion of the fixed increase, the incentive to land, the change of shareholders looks forward to the development of a new climate
Hongcheng Water (600461): The completion of the fixed increase, the incentive to land, the change of shareholders looks forward to the development of a new climate
From 2019 to 2021, we analyze the company’s performance growth points as follows: first, the price adjustment of the water supply business and the continuous increase in production capacity; second, the sewage treatment operation volume and price brought about by the expansion and transformation of sewage treatment projects, and bothDrainage engineering business growth; Third, the rapid growth of natural gas sales brought about by the continuous advancement of gasification Nanchang, and the continuous increase in the number of gas engineering installations.
At the same time, the completion of the fixed increase to provide capital guarantees, fair incentives to land and enhance the enthusiasm of the management team, the acquisition of the 杭州桑拿网 Three Gorges Group has brought more new space for the company’s business development.
Currently the company meets the corresponding PE estimate of 202010.
5 times, and corresponding to a high dividend payout ratio, already has investment value.
Hongcheng Water’s three major business growth points are sorted out: (1) Water supply: The adjustment of water prices has been implemented, and water supply income and profitability have significantly improved in 2019. In the future, the natural increase in water volume and the expansion of new water plants will increase revenue.
(2) Sewage treatment and water supply and drainage projects: 2020 will need to complete the first-level bidding for wastewater treatment plants, and the expansion and expansion will bring engineering business growth, and the sewage treatment volume and 深圳桑拿网 price will rise; (3) Gas business: GasNanchang is about to end. In 2019, the goal of 90% urban gasification rate needs to be achieved, and natural gas sales are expected to reach 5 in 2020.
At 5.4 billion cubic meters, both gas sales and installation revenue will continue to grow rapidly.
The fixed increase is completed, and the funds raised are mainly used for sewage upgrading and expansion projects. When the funds are in place, the company will accelerate the implementation of related projects, promote the company’s sewage treatment business volume and price to rise, and increase the income of water supply and drainage engineering business, and the transmission capacity will gradually increase.
Major shareholders participated in the fixed increase and locked for three years, demonstrating confidence in development.
The initial incentive implementation will bring more positive development: after the new chairman took office in 2015, the company’s performance growth began to change significantly; in December 2019, the equity incentive plan was implemented, recognizing the unification of interests and demands, and it is expected that the future development will be more active and income will continueGrowth, high dividends continued.
Three Gorges Group entered the stock market and became the seventh largest shareholder from the secondary market. Nanchang is one of the 12 key cooperation cities of the Three Gorges Group in the Yangtze River Protection. Hongcheng Water Industry has an absolute advantage in Nanchang’s water supply and drainage business.Expand the Yangtze River protection business.
Earnings forecast and estimation: We expect that the company’s EPS for 2019-2021 will be 0.
49 yuan, 0.
56 yuan, 0.
62 yuan, currently expected to correspond to PE estimates for 2019-2021 are 12 times, 10.
5 times, 9.
The dividend is estimated at 5 times. At the same time, considering that the company will have a cash dividend of more than 40% each year, according to the current progress forecast, the dividend return rate is expected to exceed 3%. The company’s current cumulative investment value is given at 13 times PE in 2020.Target price 7.
28 yuan, maintain “strongly recommended -A” rating.
Risk reminders: risks of changes in public utility operating prices; risks of policy changes; project progress exceeding expectations.