Pengding Holdings (002938)： New machine stocks start off-season
Pengding Holdings (002938): New machine stocks start off-season
Event: The company’s consolidated operating income 31 in November 2019.6 billion, the previous decade 5.5%, compared with 14 formaldehyde.2%, the company’s revenue from January to November was 241.800 million, an annual increase of 1%. November revenue exceeded the minimum of 5.5%, short-term fluctuations do not change the long-term trend.iPhone11 sales exceeded expectations due to low pricing.Apple ‘s order increase effect was concentrated in October and increased the increase in exchange. In November, revenue fell slightly, the company ‘s production line was more reliable, and the material number allocation steadily increased. The company ‘s current orders are full, and its production capacity in the fourth quarterThe maximum was over the same period of last year. Considering that the high base last year continued into November, and the revenue began to decrease in December, the fourth quarter of this year is expected to resume growth. Apple’s terminal structure improved, and consumer electronics accelerated its growth.Airpods has become Apple ‘s new explosive product. As a leader in TWS, it has continued to grow strongly. The latest release of Airpods Pro has a better response, and there is still room for TWS headset penetration to increase.In addition, the growth of Apple Watch is good. LCP antennas and SLP motherboards have helped increase ASP. The company’s supply of soft boards and motherboards has continued to increase, and its gross profit structure has improved significantly. The release of SE2 is gradual, and new machine stocking has been started.Apple is expected to launch the SE2 mobile phone in the first half of next year. According to industry chain experience and feedback, the advancement of supplier stocking will start in December. It is expected that the company will enter the new product stocking period from December to 2020, gradually turning to the same off-season.Affected by the changes in pricing strategy, we expect SE2 to meet pessimistic expectations in the market, the iPhone ecosystem is complete, and innovation is still in progress. In 2020, 5G mobile phones will be launched and comprehensive expansion is expected to resume growth. The 5G terminal cycle starts, and the company is about to usher in both volume and price.Apple will officially launch a 5G mobile phone next year. The mobile phone innovation cycle has begun, and the single-machine ASP has accelerated, including more FPC and SLP applications. The company is expected to start a new growth cycle from 2020.Wearable devices in the 5G era are expected to accelerate growth, driving demand for soft boards and SLP.With the gradual withdrawal of Japanese manufacturers in the field of flexible boards, the company’s flexible board expansion is expected to further improve. With the transformation of the company’s automated production line, the company’s profitability is expected to strengthen quarter by quarter. Earnings forecasts 西安耍耍网 and investment advice.In 2020, 5G mobile phones and consumer electronics will resonate, and the company’s products will usher in volume and price.We estimate that the company’s net profit attributable to its parent in 2019-2021 will be 30.900 million, 40.100 million, 59.800 million, corresponding estimates are 39x, 30x, 20x, maintaining the “buy” level. Risk reminders: the risk of fluctuations in Apple’s mobile phone sales; the risk of rising raw material prices; the risk of high customer concentration; the risk of new technology progressing less than expected.