Goldwind Technology (002202) Comment Report： Performance Meets Expectations, Rushing Tide Boosts Company Recovery
Goldwind Technology (002202) Comment Report: Performance Meets Expectations, Rushing Tide Boosts Company Recovery
Event: The company announced the 2018 performance report, and realized operating income of 287 in real terms.31 ppm, an increase of 14 in ten years.33%, net profit attributable to mother 32.1.7 billion, a five-year growth of 5.30%, net profit after deduction is 28.71 ppm, an increase of 0 in ten years.03%.Of which 2018Q4 operating income was 109.1.5 billion, an increase of 34 in ten years.38%, an increase of 60 from the previous month.85%, net profit attributable to mother 7.98 ppm, a five-year increase of 5.15%, down 10 from the previous month.29%, net profit after deducting non-return to mother 5.70 ppm, a decrease of 21 per year.45%, down 34.92%. Opinion: The increase in wind turbine sales and wind farm power generation will drive revenue growth. Benefiting from the increase in the company’s sales capacity of wind turbines, the increase of wind capacity in the operation phase, the improvement of wind power cut-off indicators, the increase in power generation compared with the same period last year, and the company’s operating income increased by 14%.33%.According to BNEF statistics, the amount of Goldwind fans added in 20186.7GW, an annual increase of 26.4%, the domestic city share reached 32%, an increase of 3 percentage points, and continued to maintain the domestic city share.In 2018, the national wind energy price utilization hours were 2,095 hours, an increase of 147 hours per year.As of the third quarter of 2018, the company’s wind farm equity capacity4.20GW, wind power utilization hours of 1654 hours, an increase of 237 hours per year, 89 hours higher than the national average over the same period, the amount of power generation5.8南京桑拿网1TWh, an annual increase of 39.7%. The performance is basically in line with expectations, and the wind power industry recovery signal is obvious. From the second half of 2017 to the first half of 2018, the price of onshore wind turbines continued to be subdivided, as the onshore wind turbine delivery period was about 1-1.In 5 years, the impact of lower prices in the second half of 2017 on the suppression of net profit gradually reflected in Q3-Q4 of 2018, which turned into a stable and rebounding price for fan tenders in the second half of 2018. The prices of major raw materials fell, and the company’s profit marginsExpected in 2019Q3.The wind abandonment rate has dropped, and wind power consumption tasks have been initially achieved; conventional power groups have been reorganized, and wind power investment will be back 武汉夜网论坛 on track; parity policies have been implemented, and offshore wind power has been promoted in an orderly manner; the wind power industry recovery signal has become clearer, and the probability of wind power installed capacity in 2019 continuesincrease.As a leader in wind turbines, Goldwind will continue to benefit from this round of wind power recovery cycles. Earnings forecast and estimation: Taking into account the consensus expectation of domestic wind power supplementary installation growth in 2019, we adjust the company’s EPS in 19-20 to be 1.02, 1.2.3 billion, corresponding to 13 times and 11 times the current P / E.We use the segment assessment method to increase the company’s target price to 16 with the company’s wind turbine business 20 times P / E, power generation business 10 times P / E, wind power services and wind turbine components 15 times P / E.67 yuan, continue to maintain its “strongly recommended” investment rating. Risk warning: the company’s wind farms’ hours of power generation decline; the price of wind turbines has fallen again; wind power policies have changed less than expected.