Chinese boulder (600176)： the beginning of a new cycle
Chinese boulder (600176): the 成都桑拿网 beginning of a new cycle
The three major turning points of the fiberglass industry are approaching, and the industry will enter a new cycle.
1) Inflection point of the production cycle: According to our statistics, in 2019, domestic glass fiber supplementary production capacity will gradually drop to 20-30 replacement (2018: 100 replacement), overseas glass fiber production capacity expansion will also replace (2019: 20 replacement),The new production capacity in 2018 has been basically digested in the first quarter of 2019; 2) The turning point of price and profit: At present, many small companies are already on the edge of the breakeven, and the bottom of the price is supported, so the economy and demand are picking up.The coming point; 3) The key point of differentiated development: By 2014, we believe that the development of new infrastructure such as wind power installation and 5G base stations in 2019 will further boost demand for high-end products and accelerate the trend of differentiated development of the industry. Some companiesExpect to benefit from it; pioneer of differentiated development, Nirvana of the King’s glory.
The company is a pioneer in the differentiated development of the leading fiberglass fiber industry. It has multiple advantages such as technology, scale and resource endowment. According to our calculations, the company’s wind power yarns, thermoplastic yarns and other high-end products account for 40%, which is in the industry.Absolutely leading position.
With the gradual climb of the company’s intelligent manufacturing base for alkali-free yarns and electronic yarns, we believe that the company will further improve its thorough differentiated development strategy, and expand its advantages in scale and cost, thereby leading the recovery of the glass fiber industry and the new cycle.Development, the first quarter of 2019 will be the bottom of the company’s performance; the progress of internationalization is steadily advancing, and it is predicted that the center will promote improvement.
The company’s US 8 production line is expected to start in 2019, and India 10 is expected to start production in 2020, which will cause the company’s overseas throughput to reach 38, accounting for 18% of the company’s total production capacity, and therefore the company better radiates the Asian and North American markets.Improve the international layout.
For the benchmark Fuyao Glass, we believe that under the background of the steady progress of the company’s internationalization process and the further implementation of the differentiated development strategy, the estimated central trend is rising, which is now a double turning point of the company’s performance and estimates, and a good layout opportunity;: Conservatively expected net profit attributable to mothers in 2019/202027.
90,000 yuan, an increase of 14 in ten years.
9% / 20.
The company’s 2019E net profit is estimated at 17x PE with a target price of 15.
96 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating.
Risks indicate that demand exceeds expectations; increased capacity exceeds expectations; prices of raw materials and fuel continue to exceed expectations;